There is so little you can count on in professional sports in this day and age. Parity and player empowerment have paved the way for the landscape of every major professional sports league to be changed and uprooted every single offseason. Injuries can claim even our most titanic athletes, and leave hopes, dreams, and chances at a title in their wake. Luckily, there's something you can still count on: every single player you are about to see on this list is now doomed.
I wish I had better news, but in the two years this blog has been active, I've compiled a list of the five (5) players who will have the biggest impact on my chances for a fantasy football title (and, to put it another way, my general level of happiness) from now until the season ends in December. In 2021, Robert Woods tore his ACL promptly after being featured, while Julio Jones and Gus Edwards both spent a good chunk of time on the IR, or were just plain irrelevant. James Robinson and Matthew Stafford were serviceable, but failed to provide league-winning impacts. Then, the following year, it was much more of the same. Mike Williams was in and out of the lineup, and didn't have the same big-play ability he's flashed throughout his brief NFL career. Darnell Mooney forgot he was supposed to be the Bears' WR1. Nyhiem Hines was traded to Buffalo, where he saw some uptick in value... if you were in a league that accounted for kick and punt return yards. Travis Kelce was on the list, but that was a lay-up, and as you can see, I really needed a win. And finally, the 2022 list was defined by a man whose mere name seems be synonymous with disappointment: Trey Lance.
Whether you believe the third time's the charm, or three strikes and you're out, this could be the final make-or-break year for this series on The Collections Blog. I simply need to put forth a good showing. I cannot go through another year with these five names in my head, bringing a season's worth of anguish. This is the year it all turns around. It has to be. Right? RIGHT??
Garrett Wilson, WR - Jets You could not have written a worse script for Garrett Wilson's rookie year. His quarterback situation was horrid, as Zach Wilson never found his stride, and Mike White's magic ran out promptly after defensive coordinators were able to get more film on his. Elijah Moore spent the entire season demanding out, leaving Wilson as the lone consistent option in the Jets' offense. He still won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Enter Aaron Rodgers, who has made fantasy stars out of no-name wide receivers and league-winners out of the good ones. Wilson is a good one, and even if you're worried about Rodgers not being the top tier QB he once was, you simply need to look at the chemistry these two have shown all summer long, both in training camp and the preseason. Wilson has an outside chance to be the WR1 this year.
Michael Thomas, WR - Saints I am choosing to believe that two negatives will multiply into a positive in this case. Thomas's injury history since signing a contract to make him the highest-paid wide receiver in league history (at the time) is well-documented, and so is my string of bad luck on this series over the last couple years. Something has to give here, and even if it doesn't drafting Michael Thomas won't end up sinking your fantasy team like it has in years' past. In the leagues where I've been able to scoop Thomas, he's been going in double-digit rounds. Don't forget that Thomas was pacing for WR1-range numbers (albeit in a 3-game sample size) last year, and the last time he played all his team's games, he broke the single-season receptions record. If you can get one more glory run out of Slant Boy at this price, you'll win your league.
David Montgomery, RB - Lions This one dawned on me over the past couple days. The Lions were a run-first team in the Red Zone last season, and their head-scratching first-round RB Jahmyr Gibbs is clearly meant to be a pass-catcher. Do you remember how good Jamaal Williams was last year? He's down in New Orleans, while David Montgomery, who's definitely more naturally talented, is now in his place. Montgomery is going in the 9th round, is a near-lock to lead the Lions in Red Zone carries, and is a few bounces of a football away from being the undisputed workhouse for the Lions, whose offense was scorching hot to end last season. You don't even have to draft Monty as a starter, and there's not much keeping him from being an every-week RB2, or even an RB1, throughout this season.
Alexander Mattison, RB - Vikings
If you aren't familiar with Mattison, then you probably didn't have Dalvin Cook on your fantasy teams over the past few years. Drafting Cook meant you likely had to draft Mattison, who seemed to be guaranteed to produce at a similar level to Cook when Cook's shoulder inevitably flared up. That was the case last year, and the Vikings felt they'd seen enough of Mattison that they shopped Cook in the trade market, and ended up cutting him outright. Then, as a further vote of confidence, the Vikings were never linked to any of the big-name RB free agents, and didn't spend any high-end draft capital to back him up. A full season as the Vikings' starting back may create a new household name amongst fantasy managers for 2AM. (Yes, that's my attempt at giving him a nickname. Sound off in the comments if you like it.)
Justin Herbert, QB - Chargers It couldn't have gone worse for Justin Herbert last year. In Week 3, he fractured his ribs on a Thursday night game, and played through pain for the remainder of the season. This hindered his running ability, while a haphazard offensive scheme limited his passing upside. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both missed time, and Austin Ekeler ended up getting a massive uptick in targets thanks to the checkdown-oriented offense we saw towards the end of the season. We all saw the collapse against the Jags in the playoffs, I'm not spending any more time on that than I have to. It all led many to believe that Herbert was a little more hype than substance. The Chargers didn't seem to agree, as they spent the offseason bringing in a great offensive mind in Kellen Moore, suring up their WR corps with deep threat Quentin Johnston, and making Herbert the highest-paid player in league history (for now). Add all of that up, and I'm all in on Herbert--and therefore, the Chargers as a whole--this season. An MVP and Super Bowl appearance is not out of the question, and if that's how the Chargers end up, fantasy managers will benefit from it, too. You'll have to spend a little to get him, but Herbert is regularly going after Burrow and Fields, so there's a chance that after the initial QB run, you can get him at a big discount.
**Players Also Receiving Consideration: James Cook, RB, Bills; Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers; Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins; Chiggy Okonkwo, TE, Titans; Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders; Joe Mixon, RB, Benjals; TJ Hockenson, TE, Vikings.
If you have players on this list, and the list is truly cursed, please know that I am truly sorry. I take no pride in creating this list every year, only for it to bring me nothing but pain. I want these guys to have great seasons, despite all of the evidence to the contrary. But in the end, please try to remember that this is a game based on another game played by big men who make mistakes just like the rest of us. It's not life-and-death, but getting this list right feels like it. Fantasy Gods, do your worst.
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