NFL Season is a few fantasy-draft-filled weeks away, and I'm starting to get that familiar craving for watching the a games in my sweats for an entire Sunday afternoon. While fantasy football is my primary focus during the season, it's only natural to use each week as an opportunity to analyze who'll be contending for the Lombardi Trophy. That's what we're going to do here: I've taken every team and tiered them based on their chances of hoisting the Super Bowl trophy in a cascade of confetti this winter.
What's so special and fun about the NFL is that so many of these predictions will be wrong. The NFL is a parity-driven league, despite what Tom Brady will have you think, and each year teams rise and fall, both seemingly out of nowhere. Despite knowing that I'll be wrong, I'm excited to see how I'll be wrong. Let's take a look at my tiers, and why I've got each team in their place. Can't wait to see the enraged fans!
Tier 1 - Super Bowl Contenders
Kansas City Chiefs - It's important to note that Tom Brady might be the only reason that Patrick Mahomes hasn't been the Super Bowl MVP for the last three years in a row. The Chiefs' passing game core of Mahomes, Kelce, and Tyreek Hill can cover up a lot of their faults, and with an effort to clean up the offensive line and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could make that offense even more unstoppable (which, literally speaking, is impossible).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Hey, speaking of Tom Brady, he's still on the Bucs, and so are all his friends that he brought down to Tampa with him. With Gronk, Leonard Fournette, and Antonio Brown all re-upping for this year, the Bucs are once again loaded offensively. We've also seen that defense give even Patrick Mahomes trouble, which means that there may not be a team in the NFL that can hang with the Bucs when they play at their very best.
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson got over COVID, mid-game rosebuds, and a slew of injury scares throughout the follow-up to his MVP campaign, and still we're talking about how this guy isn't that good. Really? This Ravens team had so little go right for them in the middle of last season, and still came within two games of the Super Bowl. The defense has their same swagger in its soul, and there was an obvious effort to revamp the passing game, so I'm not seeing any reason why the Ravens aren't a top 4 team in the league.
Los Angeles Rams - The Rams won quite a few games they had no business winning last year (like at Seattle in the Wild Card round), and all season it seemed like they were winning in spite of their QB play, not because of it. That's all set to turn around with the arrival of Matthew Stafford, who can either game-manage or get into shootouts with any team, depending on what's asked of him. He seems like he'll be a perfect fit for Sean McVay, and if this offense can give Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey a lead to play with, it's going to be a long set of Sundays for some of these teams.
Tier 2 - One Break Away
Buffalo Bills - Just one game away from the Super Bowl last year, and Josh Allen continues to shed haters like tacklers in the open field. Stefon Diggs unlocked the Bills' passing game last year, and they're hoping WR mercenary Emmanuel Sanders can get them over that last hurdle to the Lombardi waiting on the other side. They'll likely need the Chiefs or Ravens to slip to have a real shot, and I'm not sure they have the defense to do it.
Green Bay Packers - The only way Aaron Rodgers can twist the knife in the Packers' front office any more than he already did is to win the Super Bowl in his last year with the team, right? It seems like destiny, which can be deceiving for Packers fans. This defense, particularly in the backend, didn't have the depth to compete with elite offenses, and if they're going to be lining up against the Bucs, I think we all know how that's going to go, yet again.
Cleveland Browns - Take your pick: a healthy Odell Beckham, adding John Johnson to their secondary, securing Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield, or having Jadaveon Clowney and Myles Garett on the same defensive line. Any one of those should make you think that the Browns will be just as good or better this year, and don't forget that they were very close to beating the Chiefs in the playoffs last year. There's a log jam at the top of the AFC, but the Browns can be the ones to jump over it if they can keep up all year.
Tennessee Titans - Speaking of that log jam, the Titans have a running back with tree trunks for legs (and arms) who's looking to break through this year. Derrick Henry may be seeing less crowded boxes this year thanks to the Titans' acquisition of Julio Jones, which could mean even more room for the big man to rumble. The Titans also addressed their pass-rushing deficiency by adding Steelers standout Bud Dupree, which could mean that they've added the missing pieces they've needed to establish themselves as legit contenders.
Dallas Cowboys - This may be a "sip the Kool-Aid" moment, but Dak Prescott's performance for the Cowboys before his injury can not be forgotten about. He had this offense humming, and they managed to keep the receiving corps together while getting a healthy Blake Jarwin back. Dak is also returning to a Cowboys defense that ended up playing a lot better toward the end of the season, and with Zeke looking more shredded than ever, the Cowboys quietly have a very deep roster.
Tier 3 - Teams that can Make a Run
New England Patriots - I can't tell if Mac Jones's presence will wring out the last great year of Cam's career, or if his legit talent and football IQ will be too much to hold off, but either way, it seems like the Patriots will be right back in the conversation, right? Keep in mind that they're getting back a lot of pieces on defense (even a few on offense, too) that opted out for COVID, and that defense was one of the best we've seen in years two seasons ago. Throw in the new pass-catching toys and their typical stable of RBs, and the Patriots may end up a lot better than you think this year.
San Francisco 49ers - Whether it's Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo throwing the football Week 1, the 49ers are still a deep team that can hang with anyone, thanks to Kyle Shannahan's obvious coaching prowess. They did lose defensive coordinator Robet Saleh, so I'm intrigued to see what happens on that side of the ball, but this is an offense that you can count on, and that means everything in today's NFL.
Washington Football Team - They had the Bucs on their heels for, like, a minute in the Wild Card Round, but the Football Team have a culture established under Ron Rivera, and they have every chance to get back to the playoffs this year. They've got a young young roster, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, things could get real fun in Washington --from a football standpoint, at least-- this fall.
Los Angeles Chargers - The Chargers' entire season comes down to one question this year: is Justin Herbert legit? Personally, I think he's really good, so that means I believe in this team this year. They've got pieces on offense and defense, Derwin James is on his way back, and if Herbert takes a leap forward, the Chargers will be in the thick of the playoff hunt this year.
Indianapolis Colts - I want it on the record that this was a team that was in the "One Break Away" tier until Carson Wentz's foot surgery. They've got playmakers all over the roster, and with a more downfield-inclined QB at the helm, their receivers' skills will be on better display, and Jonathan Taylor will have room to run wild while the defense slows down even the best offenses.
Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins have the defense and special teams that can keep them in every game they play, and they're one of the few teams in the league that can say that. They're depending on a lot of young players to make a leap on offense, but if Tua Tagovailoa is one of those players, the sky is the limit for this team.
Pittsburgh Steelers - If the Packers can make a run in what's likely Aaron Rodgers's last season with the team, there's no reason the Pittsburgh Steelers can't in what's likely Ben Roethlisberger's last NFL season. They kept their passing game intact while shuffling in Najee Harris as their new workhorse back, and the defense still boasts perennial DPOY contenders TJ Watt and Casey Hayward, too. But they've fallen apart down the stretch in each of the last three season, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
New Orleans Saints - It doesn't seem to matter whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will start at QB Week 1, because both seem destined to not start all 16 games, regardless of their output. That makes the Saints very uncertain on offense, especially with Michael Thomas expected to miss at least one month. That leaves Alvin Kamara as the centerpiece of the offense, and the last time he was given that task, he ended up playing hurt for most of the season. The Saints' defense will keep them in or win them some games, but will it be enough to contend in the NFC?
Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray's trajectory is up in the air, but luckily he's got plenty of sure-handed receivers around him to ensure he can be productive through the air and with his legs. The Cardinals made a few splashy offseason moves that indicate they believe they have a contending roster, so I'm interested to see if those beliefs are proven correct.
Seattle Seahawks - The Russell Wilson drama appears to be over, and if he's in a good place with the team, the team will always be one to watch. DK Metcalf can really establish himself as one of the best receivers in the league with another elite season, and if the defense has improved, Russell may end up cooking up another Super Bowl run.
Tier 4 - Not Quite There (Yet)
Atlanta Falcons - A comedy of errors has befallen the Falcons since that unfortunate Super Bowl incident. Sorry, but I can't see a team that traded away Julio Jones as a serious contender. Maybe this is the year the defense is finally figured out?
Carolina Panthers - They've got playmakers everywhere, but do they have a QB they can trust? Carolina will have a healthy Christian McCaffrey to help out Sam Darnold, and the 1-2 of DJ Moore and Robby Anderson is one of the more underrated tandems in the league. If they get this whole QB thing figured out, I can see them jumping a few tiers. Shouldn't be too tough, right?
Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags may not have a good team, but they have a plan to make one, and that's why they're here. I detest Urban Meyer, but we'll see if he's a good coach. Just don't ruin Golden Boy Trevor, please.
Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings are in need of upgrades on defense, and they've made them, but something about Kirk Cousins doesn't strike me as a Super Bowl QB (it's probably his vaccine stance). Is he running out of time as the starter in Minnesota? The Vikings have the pieces, if Cousins can put the puzzle together.
Las Vegas Raiders - The only thing I keep hearing about the Raiders is their sick night club in the end zones of their stadium. That, as you may know, has nothing to do with their football team, which wasn't very good last year. Derek Carr's leash is shorter that Kirk Cousins's, so it's going to be an interesting year in Sin City.
Chicago Bears - Just start Justin Fields, you cowards.
Cincinnatti Bengals - Joe Burrow's return from his ACL injury should make this team more competitive, but I don't want to throw them in the "make a run" tier to put too much pressure on him. Burrow, an avid reader of this blog, will have his college buddy to throw to, and he'll need to do that a lot with a defense that has no notable improvements from last year.
New York Giants - It's now or never for Daniel Jones. With Saquon Barkley coming back and Kenny Golladay leading the suddenly crowded receivers room, the Giants have lined up all the dominos for a breakout season. It's just a matter of if Dimebag Danny can knock them all over and help the Giants contend all season, rather than the glimmer of hope they offered late last season.
New York Jets - We'll see soon enough if the Jets have the right QB, but I think they absolutely have the right head coach. Robert Saleh should have that defense making great strides, and Corey Davis hopes to cash in on the WR1 potential he showed in college, but if their 13 year-old Mormon boy of a QB can't connect, will Saleh get the chance to try again?
Tier 5 - Do you have a plan?
Detroit Lions - How long until the Lions realize Jared Goff isn't the answer. I think it's either that they already know, or they won't figure it out until they forget to cut him before he makes all of the $100+ million remaining on his contract.
Philadelphia Eagles - This Cirianni is gonna be must-see television at his post-game press conferences. I'm not sure that's a good thing. Also, what is it with the Eagles relying on small, injury-prone wide receivers? Devonta Smith is already hurt, and when he's out there, he might be alongside the oft-injured Jalen Reagor. Godspeed, Jalen Hurts.
Denver Broncos - The Broncos so obviously thought they'd catch the Packers with their pants down and land Aaron Rodgers this season. They didn't, and now we're in this lame-duck season where Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater are battling for the opportunity to earn their next contract while wasting the last year of Von Miller's deal. He deserves so much better.
Houston Texans - Call me crazy, but if a player on a team I managed was accused by over three dozen women of sexual misconduct, that player would be promptly cut from my team. Alas, as Deshaun Watson is the only remaining perceived asset on the Texans, he remains. This team is going to be abysmal this year.
Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@whysoserious) or in the comments on what you think I got right or wrong here. Until then, I'll see ya on September 9th for Opening Night!
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