We are officially one quarter of the way through the NFL Season! If the first four weeks are going to be an indicator, the week-over-week results are only going to get more and more puzzling as we inch closer to the Super Bowl, and into the colder months. That being said, there are at least a handful of teams that we know will be contenders, a couple that we know will not be, and the rest? Well, you'll see how difficult of a time I had with this shortly.
I decided to make my tiers based on the number of wins each time has. However, there's a lot of variance that can come in, even with five different options for wins. For example, the Bengals and Broncos each have two wins. Do you think Joe Burrow and Russell Wilson are feeling the same way about how their respective teams are performing right now? My thoughts exactly. I'll give you one more example: both the Packers and Chiefs have three wins, but is there anyone who's watched these games that think the Packers are as good as the Chiefs? With this in mind, I added three tiers to the list, based on whether the team is feeling good, bad, or somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, which I'm going to call "weird." With those in place, I made some rules for myself: teams with three wins aren't allowed to feel bad, and teams with one win aren't allowed to feel good. You'll see it below, when the tiers are revealed. If you'd like to know why I put each team in their respective tier, I'll have brief thoughts below. I'd say the preferred way to talk about this is on Twitter, where all great discourse occurs. See you there!
4 Wins Tier
Eagles: Not much to say about this Eagles team, aside from the fact that they're really good. If Jalen Hurts continues to prove that he's turned the corner as an NFL QB, there's no height this team can't reach.
3 Wins, Feeling Good Tier
Chiefs: If the Chiefs didn't give that game away in Indy two weeks ago, I'd likely be calling them the best team in the league right now. But they did, and it's a loss that fits a theme: sometimes this offense gets a little too cute for their own good. The blowout win against Tampa Bay was huge get-right game this week.
Bills: Josh Allen's MVP candidacy got a huge lift this week, as he lead his team to a 14-plus-point come-from-behind victory for the first time as a started against Baltimore. If it weren't for that blip in the radar in Miami, the Bills would be the undisputed kings of this tier list, perhaps even a tier above the Eagles.
Cowboys: How much money is Cooper Rush making himself right now? He's filled in incredibly well in place of Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys now have two in-division wins and a big win against the Bengals. If he only won two of the last three games, this would still be a raging success. Instead, he's now 4-0 in his spritz of starts over the last two years, and could end up being a great option for a team that gets left out of the QB sweepstakes in this spring's draft. CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons appear to have rounded into form, so one could say the stars are beginning to align for Dallas.
3 Wins, Feeling Weird Tier
Giants: This might be my own personal bias creeping in, but wins against the Bears and Panthers aren't exactly jumping off the page right now. That win in Tennessee, however? That's one that Brian Daboll can build on. It's just really weird to see the Giants this season, knowing it's a lame-duck year for Daniel Jones, but at least we get to see Saquon at full strength.
Vikings: They beat down the Packers Week 1, but does that mean much considering how bad the Packers have played in their opening game in back-to-back years? The win against the Saints in London this week was a great one to build on, and beating the Lions is more of an accomplishment this year than in years past. However, both of those could have swung the other way at any point, and watching Minnesota for any amount of time shows an offense still trying to figure things out. They have time, but not for much longer.
Dolphins: I'd love to ignore the abhorrent handling of Tua Tagovailoa's concussions, but that's part of the story here. Yes, it seems like Mike McDaniel was a great hire, but that situation is casting too dark a shadow over the rest of this team for me to accurately assess their season so far. I just hope Tua's getting better.
Packers: They punted Week 1 again, then beat the Bears, and then scored 14 points in a win in Tampa and let the Patriots hang around with their 3rd-string QB, a game they almost lost in OT. Add all that together, and you see a Packers team that is very much still a work in progress. They appear to have real competition for the Division crown in the Vikings, but as long as Doubs and Watson continue to progress, the Packers should end up just fine.
2 Wins, Feeling Good Tier
Falcons: Cordarelle Patterson's injury almost had me demote the Falcons to the weird tier, but two straight wins against the Seahawks and Browns is more than enough for Atlanta to feel good about where they're at right now. Marcus Mariota has had an interesting year, and one has to wonder if Atlanta's front office is worried that he's going to take them out of the early portion of the draft, where they'd likely be in the QB hunt.
Jaguars: It would appear that Urban Meyer was the only problem (and a big one, at that) with Jacksonville last year. After an opening week loss to Washington that's looking more and more like an anomaly, dominant wins against the Chargers and Colts got everyone's attention. Then, we got another glimpse of this team's potential, as they had the Eagles on the ropes in the driving rain for much of the first half. It's important to remember that this is still a very young team, and they're going to make mistakes (like the five fumbles Trevor Lawrence had, for instance), but this team is going to be very fun to watch.
Chargers: Not exactly where many hoped they'd be, the Chargers are dealing with a lot of key injuries right now and are still in the thick of the hunt. Justin Herbert seems to be getting more an more comfortable with the pain in his ribs, and they've found some great pieces to plug the holes until some of their injured stars returned.
Bengals: The sky was falling in Cincinnati a week ago, but a blowout win over the Jets and a Thursday night win over Miami has them back at .500 and ready to pounce. After all that talk of a Super Bowl hangover, Joe Burrow and the rest of the pack are tied for the best record in the AFC North after a month, and this is going to be one of the most fun divisions to watch over the next few months.
49ers: They have more reason to be in the weird tier than anybody, but two wins against divisional opponents is huge early in the season, and after a heartbreaker of an injury to Trey Lance, Jimmy G seems to be settling back into his Game Manager role. Let's just hope they find a way to keep all these weapons on the outside loaded.
Jets: Is that the sound of hope from MetLife? An impossible comeback against the Browns and a ballsy game-winning drive from Zach Wilson against the Steelers this week has the Jets unexpectedly one game out of first place in their division. Their schedule hasn't put them on the field with Buffalo or Miami just yet, so we're yet to see just how good this team is.
Seahawks: They won the biggest game of their season Week 1 against Russ, but they may not be done turning heads this season. Geno Smith has been dealing, and Pete Carroll has this team believing. These Seahawks won't be as easy of an out as I thought.
2 Wins, Feeling Weird Tier
Cardinals: I just don't think the Cardinals will feel anyting other than weird until they get a chance to make up for that horrific playoff game they had last year. They needed to crush the Panthers, and they did, so I'm hoping we see them start to build momentum over the next few weeks.
Ravens: You have to start wondering how a team that's so proud of its ability to run the ball and dominate up front keeps giving away leads like the Ravens have. Maybe it's karma for them being stingy with Lamar's contract.
Rams: Odell Beckham Jr. injuring his ACL in the Super Bowl seems to be the most impactful event for this team this season. If he doesn't get hurt, they likely still win the game, likely resign Odell instead of Allen Robinson, and likely don't look as lost as they have at times this season. I trust McVay to figure it out, but we'll need to see some urgency soon.
Titans: I have no trust in this team whatsoever, but I didn't last year, either. They have one of the widest range of outcomes for the rest of the season in the league.
Broncos: It feels like Russell Wilson bet on himself and the dealer turned over 21 to start this season. He showed flashes last week, but they still lost a weird game to the Raiders. If the Broncos continue to have a similar record to the Seahawks, it's only going to get louder around how bad of a trade Denver made to get Russ.
Buccaneers: Never count out Touchdown Tom, but at some point this offense is going to need to put up more points if they're going to seriously contend.
2 Wins, Feeling Bad Tier
Bears: Their offense is nearly impossible to watch. It took a torrential downpour for them to beat San Francisco, and that win over the Texans doesn't look like it's a resume highlight, either. I'm still counting a loss to the Giants as a major demerit, too.
Browns: Horrific game management cost them a win against the Jets, and a depleted defense that couldn't stop Cordarelle Patterson and two guys who are rostered in 5% of fantasy leagues or less on the ground cost them another. Plus, this team is headed for one of the worst PR moments in NFL history when Deshaun Watson is somehow allowed to take the field.
1 Win, Feeling Weird Tier
Raiders: One of my biggest "better than their record" picks of the year so far. We saw how this Las Vegas core responds to adversity all last year, so I have no doubt that they can get things turned around.
Steelers: It can't be overlooked that Mike Tomlin had a long week to prepare Kenny Pickett to start against the Jets, chose not to in place of Mitch Trubisky, only to bench Trubisky for Pickett at halftime of that game. That said, Pickett provided a real spark to the offense, and isn't afraid to take the chances that Mitch couldn't take early this year. I won't count out Pittsburgh until I see them finish a season with a losing record under Tomlin.
Patriots: If I'm not counting out the Steelers, I certainly count out Bill Belichek and the Patriots. Their QB situation is approaching disaster, if it's not already there, though.
Lions: They lead the league in Points Per Game and are somehow 1-3, which indicates to me that things are going to start bouncing the Lions' way soon here. They gave the Eagles all they could handle in Week 1, and have spent the last three weeks proving that wasn't a fluke offensive performance.
1 Win, Feeling Bad Tier
Colts: That tie against Houston really told us all we needed to know about the Colts' chances for contending this year. Matt Ryan looks more shot than Phillip Rivers did during his tenure with Indy, and Jonathan Taylor has really struggled to recapture his magic from last season. That win against the Chiefs feels more and more like a miracle with each passing day.
Commanders: Carson Wentz, once and for all, cannot be the QB a team hitches its wagon to. Taylor Heinicke will be starting multiple games before the end of this season.
Panthers: Are they going to give up on Baker or Matt Rhule first? They'll likely give up on both before the end of the year, so this is all Panthers fans have to keep them interested for the time being. At least CMC is healthy?
Saints: Did they quietly bench Jameis and hid behind his back injury? What is going on with Alvin Kamara? What about Michael Thomas? Too many questions coming out of New Orleans right now. At least they nailed the Chris Olave pick.
0 Wins Tier
Texans: Davis Mills does not appear to be the answer at QB. It's been nice to see Dameon Pierce cash in on his preseason hype.
I want to check in and do these throughout the regular season, in some form or another. I'm thinking we'll check in again after week 9 (when all teams have played 8 of their 17 games), and we'll take it from there. Like I said, feel free to sound off about what I got right and/or wrong on Twitter (@whysoserious)!
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