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Writer's pictureDonald Wagenblast

Year-End Madness, Part 1: Predicting My Spotify Wrapped for 2021

November's seen its first half fly by, and we're getting to that all-important final month of the year, where all the blogs (like this one) are busy preparing year-end recaps that will attempt to capture all of the relevant happenings throughout 2021. I'm sure I'll be posting a lot throughout December, and I'm hoping to see a lot from you, as well!


One of my favorite parts of the end of the year comes in early December, when my entire Twitter and Instagram feeds turn into an advertisement for Spotify, as the genius Spotify Wrapped promotion begins. If you're somehow unfamiliar, Spotify keeps track of your listening habits throughout the year, and spits out a very postable picture revealing your top 5 most listened to artists and songs from the last year. While some Scrooges take the time out of doing something that might actually make them happy to tweet about how nobody cares about these graphics, I can assure you that I do. Through Spotify Wrapped, I've discovered new bands that my friends were crazy about, got a great inside look at their listening habits, and even discovered a mutual interest in artists or genres with people that I otherwise never would have guessed about. I used to be the type to keep an iPod around to listen to music, but it's fair to say that being able to see my Spotify Wrapped at least had a part in switching the way I listen to music as a whole. I'm so excited to see things this year, I'm even making this, a predictions post about my 2021 listening history.


Before delving into this predictions, I should mention something very important: there has been some research assisting me in the composition of this compilation. First, I have each of my past three years of Spotify Wrapped posts, which you will see below, to guide my listening habits. Let's take a look at them now:



In reviewing the last three years, a few things definitely stick out: First, the top spot is always occupied by an artists who released an album that year. 2018 saw the release of Post Malone's Beerbongs and Bentleys, which I unashamedly love, while 2019 was the year The Menzingers took my AOTY spot with Hello Exile, and The 1975 scored big with 2020's Notes on a Conditional Form. After that, the list is typically dominated by other artists who released new albums, but it's not always the case. For example, in 2019, The Story So Far were already a year into the promotion of Proper Dose, but I was still enthralled in the growth they'd showed on that album. 2019 is also noteworthy because of JuiceWRLD's presence. While Death Race for Love did come out that year, my spike in listens was much more to do with his tragic passing at the end of the year. Meanwhile, my love for The Menzingers continued into 2020, and although their acoustic reimagining called From Exile did drop at the end of the year, they had already cemented themselves in my heavy rotation long before it dropped.


The New Release Theory holds true for the Top Songs sections as well, as 14 out of 15 songs featured were released in the year that they made the graphic for. The lone exception is "Summertime Gladness," a track that I may never be able to explain why it completely took over my summer listening habits. So while it's fair to assume that the list this year will exclusively include songs released in 2021, there's a slim chance that something from years past could break through.


In addition to my analysis of my own habits over the last three years, I've also been tracking my listens through a third party software, which can be found at this link:



Stats for Spotify is an awesome tool, showing your Top 50 songs and Artists over the last 4 weeks, 6 months, or all time. If I were to make a rough assumption, I'd guess that I've checked the site pretty much every month this year. However, I haven't checked since the beginning October to make the predictions in this post a little more difficult. I think I have a good idea of what's going to end up where, but I certainly don't know for sure. With that, let's dive into the predictions, starting with the Top 5 Projected Artists:



5. The Maine - The band came storming out of the gates with "Sticky" and "April 7th," two songs that have remained staples in my shuffling throughout the year. However, xoxo: From Love and Anxiety in Real Time did not have as much of an impact as an album, which likely prevented The Maine from jumping higher on this list.



4. Circa Survive - One of the cool things I've been using Stats for Spotify for is to find holes in my listening habits. While it's likely that Circa Survive is the band I've listened to the most throughout my entire life, they were relatively low on my all-time listens list, likely due to the fact they haven't released a new album since 2017's The Amulet. With that in mind, I made a more conscious effort to listen to them as much as possible this year, so that my all-time stats are closer to my actual music taste, and not just the last 3+ years. They're also heavily featured on my workout playlist, the appropriately-titled "Just Go to the Fucking Gym." Then, the band released an EP last month called A Dream About Love, and that was likely more than enough to assure that Circa would end up as one of my top artists of the year.



3. Manchester Orchestra - After dropping "Bed Head" early in the year and announcing the release of The Million Masks of God, it was a near certainty that Manchester Orchestra would end up on this list. In addition to Million Masks being the most heavily-featured album in my ongoing "Best 2021"playlist, I've also been listening to "Pride" any time I need a jolt of energy in my day, so it's probable that at least one ManchOrch song will be on my top tracks list, too.



2. The Band CAMINO - TBC released their long-awaited debut album in September, but with stellar offerings like "Know It All" and "1 Last Cigarette" peppered in throughout the year, they are a lock for the Top 3 on this list. However, the album's slightly underwhelming reaction from me, plus the fact that it was released so late in the year, means that they didn't quite get to the top spot.



1. Tigers Jaw - It wasn't a debut, but it was almost 5 years since spin came out when Tigers Jaw released I Won't Care How You Remember Me. They have a huge advantage over The Band CAMINO, as I Won't Care came out in March, and the band had released album standouts like "Hesitation" and "Lemon Mouth" leading up to the release of the album. Once the title track dropped, it became an unskippable song, and I've sought to play it plenty. In addition, I've listened to a steady mix of songs like "Anniversary," "Commit," and "Can't Wait Forever" as well. It's tough to whittle tens of thousands of minutes of music down to one band, but this does feel like Tigers Jaw is a lock for the #1 spot.


Other Possibilities: Teenage Wrist, on the back of their career-redefining Earth is a Black Hole poses a threat, as they had the first album release of the year that really held my attention; if total minutes listened is a factor, Deafheaven have as good a chance as anyone; Foxing have one of the best albums of the year, but did Draw Down the Moon's late summer release leave too little time to catch up?; Underoath are always a good bet, and their phenomenal singles released to promote their 2022 release Voyeurist were played a ton in the fall; The 1975, Dance Gavin Dance, and The Story So Far are always threats, but I'm not sure they had enough gas this year; can Bo Burnham crack the top 5, despite Inside: The Songs not coming out until a month after the special aired on Netflix?


Top Tracks Predictions



5. Teenage Wrist - "Earth is a Black Hole": For a little while, it was possible that either "Taste of Gasoline" or "New Emotion" was going to hold this spot, but the title track of Teenage Wrist's new album was absolutely my most-played song from this album, and its release in early February gives it a leg up on the competition.



4. Manchester Orchestra - "Bed Head": Let's see, my most-played song from one of my favorite bands on what may become my Album of the Year? Yep, this feels like a safe bet.




3. The Maine - "April 7th": It's tough to separate this song from "Bed Head," as they came out at very similar times but I'll give the edge to The Maine's perfect hopeless romantic's anthem here. While "Bed Head" is one of many highlights on The Million Masks of God, "April 7th" really carries The Maine's latest effort as the clear #1 track, which brought me back to it more and more as the year unfurled.



2. Tigers Jaw - "I Won't Care How You Remember Me": While it wasn't the lead single, and wasn't even hinted at until the album's release, this track took over immediately as my favorite song from the album that borrowed its name. As an added bonus, Andy Hull is featured on this song, meaning the Manchester Orchestra maestro will likely have two appearances on my Top Tracks List. Will he make it a third?



1. The Band CAMINO - "1 Last Cigarette": Sorry, Andy, but the boys in The Band CAMINO are taking the top spot, and maybe another, on this list. While their self-titled album may have been released later in the year, "1 Last Cigarette" was released much earlier, and for a while, I was listening to it at least twice a day. I don't think any other song reached that peak this year, and even after The Band CAMINO came out, I still found my way back to the band's retelling of a night that made them reassess their lives. It's the end of the year, maybe we all ought to do the same.


Other Possibilities: I ended up liking Beartooth's new album Below a lot, and a big part of that was the monster single "The Past Is Dead"; speaking of metalcore, Atreyu's "Underrated" ended up sticking with me throughout the year, along with the Jared Dines/Howard Jones collab "The Blade"; Bo Burnham looms large here, as a lot of the songs on Inside were short and sweet, but if any of his songs makes this list, my money's on "That Funny Feeling"; Every Time I Die's album Radical came out way too late to have them on the artists list, but "Desperate Pleasures" or "Colossal Wreck" ending up on this list wouldn't surprise me; It's very possible that The Band CAMINO end up with two songs on here, and if they do, it'll be either "Know It All" or "Damage"; I wish I was kidding, but there's a non-zero chance that "White Boy Summer" ends up on here.


Not that it bears explanation, but all of the artists and tracks I mentioned here are highly recommended. This isn't a complete picture of what I listened to this year by any stretch, but it's a great start. I'm excited to see how close I am (or am not) in a couple weeks when Spotify unwraps (get it) their best feature, and I can't wait to see yours, too! Be sure to send them in on Twitter (@whysoserious) when you get them.

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